溢油扩展、漂移及扩散预测技术研究进展   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李欢  邵伟增  李程  张松  李文善  徐珊珊 《海洋通报》2017,36(4):379-384

海上溢油灾害会严重破坏中国近海海洋环境,还会直接危害我国经济发展。因此,开展溢油预测预警技术研究是非常有必要的,能够为海上溢油应急响应提供技术支撑。本文综述了溢油扩展、漂移及扩散数值预测技术的发展过程及相关研究成果,包括溢油扩展模型、溢油漂移与扩散模型、溢油预测预警系统,为未来开展溢油应急工作提供了理论依据和参考。  相似文献   

Recreational boaters value biodiversity: The case of the California Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary     

《Marine Policy》2017

Marine ecosystems provide a range of valuable services, some of which come with market prices to quantify value and others for which markets have not set prices. Lacking perfect information, policy makers are at risk of undercounting non-priced values and services, leading to biases in policy decisions in favor of services valued through markets. Furthermore, understanding users’ valuation of specific site attributes, such as marine biodiversity, can contribute to effective policy decisions. This paper presents a non-market valuation of private recreational boaters (PRBs) in the Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary located in California, USA, using data from an intercept survey conducted in 2006 and 2007. A Random Utility Model is used to estimate PRBs’ daily trip values and the importance of specific site attributes. The average consumer surplus was estimated at $48.62 per trip, with a total non-market value of non-consumptive private recreational boating of $86,325 annually. PRBs show a preference for visiting locations with lower exposure to prevailing winds and greater species richness and abundance, which to the authors’ knowledge is the first time that PRBs have been found to value biological diversity in site choices. Furthermore, this suggests that improved biodiversity and productivity of marine ecosystems contribute to better recreational experiences. The results from this study reveal the importance of including non-market services and stakeholder's preferences into policy decisions.  相似文献   

Investigation of seismic response of cantilever retaining walls: Limit analysis vs shaking table testing     

《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2015

The earthquake response of cantilever retaining walls is explored by means of theoretical analyses and shaking table testing conducted at University of Bristol (EERC - EQUALS). The theoretical investigations employ both limit analysis and wave-propagation methods, which take into account different aspects of the problem such as inertia, strength, kinematics and compatibility of deformations. The experimental programme encompasses different combinations of retaining wall geometries, soil configurations and input ground motions. The response analysis of the systems at hand aims at shedding light onto salient features of the problem, such as: (1) the magnitude of soil thrust and its point of application; (2) the relative sliding versus rocking of the wall base and the corresponding failure modes; (3) the importance of the interplay between soil stiffness, wall dimensions and excitation characteristics, as affecting the above; (4) the importance of wall dynamics and phase differences between peak stresses and displacements. The results of the experimental investigations are in good agreement with the theoretical models and provide a better understanding on the complex mechanics of the problem.  相似文献   

Discussion of the paper: “Recommendations for extension and re-calibration of an existing sand constitutive model taking into account varying non-plastic fines content”     

《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2015

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Digital Tide-Coordinated Shoreline     

Rongxing Li  Ruijin Ma  Kaichang Di 《Marine Geodesy》2013,36(1-2):27-36

The shoreline is one of the most important features on earth's surface. It is valuable to a diverse user community. But the dynamic nature of the shoreline makes it difficult to be represented in a naturally dynamic style and to be utilized in applications. The officially used shoreline, for example in nautical charts, is the so-called tide-coordinated shoreline. It is also the shoreline that makes the computation of shoreline changes and associated environmental changes meaningful. Mapping of the tide-coordinated shoreline has been very costly. On the other hand, instantaneous shorelines extracted from different data sources may be available. Also, high-resolution satellite and airborne imagery have the capacity of stereo imaging and can be used to extract instantaneous shorelines at a high accuracy and low cost. This article proposes an approach to derivation of digital tidecoordinated shorelines from (a) those instantaneous shorelines and (b) digital coastal surface models and a digital water surface model. Some preliminary study results, analysis, and the potential of the approach are discussed.  相似文献   

Dependence of Mean Sea Surfaces from Altimeter Data on the Reference Model Used     

G. Rodríguez-Velasco  M. J. Sevilla  C. De Toro 《Marine Geodesy》2013,36(4):289-312

A mean sea surface model is used as the frame of reference in processing altimeter data. This article focuses on ascertaining the extent to which results depend on the different mean sea surface models used. In particular, we have analyzed the results from the OSU95MSS and the CLS_SHOMv.98.2 models in an area in the North Atlantic Ocean comprising the Canary and Azores Islands. Special attention has been paid to data editing and several criteria were proposed. The amount of detected data is quite small because we used a well corrected data set. However, it was enough to show important relations between the applied criteria and the kind of area. Therefore we analyzed the best way to apply these criteria according to the areas where the points have been found. Singular areas related to several factors have been detected by all the suggested criteria. In particular, rough sea bottom features, dynamic circulation, and amphidromic points of the tidal waves, among others. As a result of this analysis, we have not considered it appropriate to remove all the detected points. Two time-averaged and corrected mean sea surfaces were determined in the test area.  相似文献   

Effect of Salinity and Currents on Sea Level Variation Along the Indian Coast: A Numerical Study     

A. D. Rao  S. V. Babu  S. K. Dube 《Marine Geodesy》2013,36(1-2):145-158

The process of upwelling/sinking and associated sea level variations are seen as a response of coastal ocean to pure wind stress forcing. Further,precipitation and monsoonal floods, apart from the marine meteorological parameters, are expected to influence the sea level fluctuations along the coast. This study comprises determining the sea level from the various parameters together with the pure wind stress forcing, which is compared with the observed cycle. However, it is found that there is considerable difference between the computations and observations. This suggests that the sea level is dependent not just on the local forcing alone, but also on the induced background circulation as well. For example, the sea level changes along the east coast of India, particularly the northern region, are more sensitive to freshwater discharge from various rivers joining the Bay of Bengal. This is due to more frequently occurring pre- and postmonsoon cyclonic storms and the associated surges in the Bay of Bengal as compared to the Arabian Sea. Hence the salinity effects are particularly important in the coastal waters off the east coast of India during monsoon months (June-September). For the west coast of India, however, it is expected that the large-scale coastal circulation may play a role in determining sea level changes in addition to other forcings. The salinity effects are negligible along the west coast in the absence of any major river systems that join the Arabian Sea. The local advection currents caused by the offshore directed freshwater discharge from various estuaries joining the coastal bay also seemed to influence the sea level. In order to elucidate the essential dynamics involved and to study the effect of the remote forcing, a three-dimensional baroclinic, nonlinear numerical model is used with appropriate open boundary conditions. The local effect of the current has been incorporated in the west coast model by means of opening a channel at Cochin through which the rainwater is carried away to the model ocean. The low saline plume, cascading from north along the east cost of India, has been incorporated in the east coast model through a proper forcing applied at the northern boundary of the model. With the inclusion of these remote forcings in the models, the disagreement between the simulations and the observations is minimized.  相似文献   

地球系统模式FIO-ESM对北极海冰的模拟和预估   总被引：5，自引：3，他引：2  

舒启  乔方利  宋振亚 《海洋学报》2013,35(5):37-45

评估了地球系统模式FIO-ESM(First Institute of Oceanography-Earth System Model)基于CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5)的历史实验对北极海冰的模拟能力,分析了该模式基于CMIP5未来情景实验在不同典型浓度路径(RCPs,Representative Concentration Pathways)下对北极海冰的预估情况。通过与卫星观测的海冰覆盖范围资料相比,该模式能够很好地模拟出多年平均海冰覆盖范围的季节变化特征,模拟的气候态月平均海冰覆盖范围均在卫星观测值±15%范围以内。FIO-ESM能够较好地模拟1979-2005年期间北极海冰的衰减趋势,模拟衰减速度为每年减少2.24×104 km2,但仍小于观测衰减速度(每年减少4.72×104 km2)。特别值得注意的是:不同于其他模式所预估的海冰一直衰减,FIO-ESM对21世纪北极海冰预估在不同情景下呈现不同的变化趋势,在RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下,北极海冰总体呈增加趋势,在RCP6情景下,北极海冰基本维持不变,而在RCP8.5情景下,北极海冰呈现继续衰减趋势。  相似文献   

Assimilation of surface currents into a regionalmodel over Qingdao coastal waters of China     

ZHAO Jian  CHEN Xueen  XU Jiangling  HU Wei  CHEN Jinrui  Pohlmann Thomas 《海洋学报(英文版)》2013,32(7):21-28

Surface currents measured by high frequency （HF） radar arrays are assimilated into a regional ocean model over Qingdao coastal waters based on Kalman filter method. A series of numerical experiments are per- formed to evaluate the performance of the data assimilation schemes. In order to optimize the analysis pro- cedure in the traditional ensemble Kalman filter （ENKF）, a different analysis scheme called quasiensemble Kaman filter （QENKF） is proposed. The comparisons between the ENKF and the QENKF suggest that both them can improve the simulated error and the spatial structure. The estimations of the background error covariance （BEC） are also assessed by comparing three different methods： Monte Carlo method; Canadian quick covariance （CQC） method and data uncertainty engine （DUE） method. A significant reduction of the root-mean-square （RMS） errors between model results and the observations shows that the CQC method is able to better reproduce the error statistics for this coastal ocean model and the corresponding external forcing. In addition, the sensibility of the data assimilation system to the ensemble size is also analyzed by means of different scales of the ensemble size used in the experiments. It is found that given the balance of the computational cost and the forecasting accuracy, the ensemble size of 50 will be an appropriate choice in the Qingdao coastal waters.  相似文献   

基于WebService的地球系统碳循环建模框架研究     

毛曦  李琦  张子民 《测绘软科学研究》2012,(2):57-60,64

在分析了现有地球系统碳循环模型后,提出了基于WebServices的建模框架方案。定义了地球系统碳循环建模框架的体系结构,设计了地球系统碳循环模型服务的元数据。最后,构建了地球系统碳循环模型服务祸合与兼容性校验方式。实验表明,基于WebServices的地球系统碳循环建模框架可以实现网络环境下异构碳循环模型服务的集成建模。  相似文献